Have you ever wondered what teachers discuss in the breakroom when they’re not reading through stacks of student essays and tests? Besides the usual topics of grades or lessons, Mitch and Christina often digress into conversations about movies, music and tv. We’re two English teachers who harbor secret hopes of one day becoming famous entertainment world critics. We know we’re a little obsessed, but we’ve accepted it, even embraced it. We’ve created this blog to invite you to join our conversation.

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Sunday, January 10, 2010

Best Picture Predictions


Like Mitch, I’m pretty sure the expansion from five movies to ten is a ratings move.  With more nomination sports to fill, there is a greater chance that audiences will have seen more of the nominated movies and will have more of a reason to watch the broadcast.  However one question remains:  Is widening the pool going to allow more “blockbuster” pictures to be nominated (which is what the Academy wants) or open the doors to more independent films (that people still haven’t seen)?

My answer definitely leans towards the latter.  Take a look at the top grossing movies of 2009.  Out of the top 15 movies on that list, 7 are sequels.  Harry Potter, Transformers, Twilight, Ice Age, X-Men, Night at the Museum, Alvin and the Chipmunks (people actually went to see that??).  Do any of those have even the remotest change of being nominated?  No.  Unfortunately, what the public goes to see is very different from what kind of movies get nominated by the Academy.  And so, their expansion move, not the best idea.

And yet…despite the fact that their maneuver doesn’t make sense, I think the Academy will get a ratings boost this year, but not from the now larger nomination pool in the Best Picture Category.   The Academy will owe their thanks for the bigger audience, not to whatever genius board of directors came up with the expansion idea, but to one man.  One director who did the same thing for them twelve years ago.  What was the highest grossing movie of 2009?  Avatar directed by James Cameron.  In 1998, Cameron directed Titanic which was the top box office hit of the year, and the Oscar Telecast generated over 57 million viewers.  Avatar is a definite shoo-in for a Best Picture Nomination this year, and so I think the Academy can be guaranteed a jump in the ratings.   They should give Cameron an honorary Oscar just for that.

In the end, I don’t think it comes down to 5 movies or 10.  It comes down to 1.  Is there the one picture that year that can be deemed Oscar worthy, but also generate mass public appeal?  Some years the Academy is lucky, some years they aren’t.  This year happens to be one where they are.

So here’s my list of predictions.  Those in bold are the films I think would have been nominated if there were only 5 pictures in the category.

The Hurt Locket
Avatar
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
Up
Precious
An Education
As Serious Man
Nine
Crazy Heart

Posted by Ms. Maffa at 3:54 PM

1 comment:

  1. MitchPJanuary 10, 2010 at 11:17 PM

    I wonder what the ratings were like the three years that the Lord of the Rings movies were nominated since those were also huge box office films. I think this expansion is a reaction to "The Dark Knight" not getting nominated last year. It's similar to how some rules in sports are adopted because of a single incident. We'll never know which movies would have made the traditional 5 movie cut anyway, but there's a possibility that "Up" might benefit from the rule change. That's the only blockbuster movie I can see being added to the Best Picture field that might have missed the cut in any other year. There's also a very slim chance that "The Hangover" might get nominated. If this happens then the Academy would definitely get what it wanted when they made the new rule.

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