Softball Playoff Predictions(First Round)

It's that most wonderful time of the year! Playoff time for the Marlboro Mens Softball league. Recently, we've had years where all the favorites advance and years where there were upsets after upsets. The truth is that when you're dealing with softball, almost anything can happen. That being said, the Pollock Power Rankings(see previous article on this blog site) were designed to accurately project exactly what will happen in the playoffs. Ok, well not exactly. I am hoping it at least predicts the winner of the Mesmer/Younger matchup. If you object to any of the predictions, well you should have done a better job in the regular season :)

Round One:

National League

Goldfarb vs. Sollazzo

This is where I have to remind the readers that I'm solely basing this preview on the numbers, so nothing personal. The bottom line is that Goldfarb has a run differential of +88 while Sollazzo's is -122. The one ray of hope for Sollazzo's squad is that they've kept the scores close lately. Two out of the last three losses were by a total of five runs. Meanwhile Goldfarb's last three games have all been relatively close. The bottom line,however, is that all signs are pointing towards a two game sweep.

Prediction:
Goldfarb in two


Carlin vs. Applebaum

For awhile there it looked like Carlin was losing all of its early season momentum. Not only are they entering the playoffs on a three game winning streak, but they are absolutely crushing their opponents. On the other side of the field, Team Applebaum has lost three of the past four games by 8,14, and 19 runs. They are also 1-6 in their last seven games. If any part of playoff success is based on momentum, then it looks like Carlin should win easily.

Prediction:
Carlin in two.


Spiegel vs. Granese:

These two teams are almost as evenly matched as you can get. In fact, The PPR(Pollock Power Rankings) has Spiegel ranked 8th and Granese 10th. There is also no clear sign of momentum although Granese won both regular season meetings. In the end, I'm going to stick with my power rankings and say Spiegel will squeak out a victory.

Prediction:
Spiegel in three


Beilis vs.Wallman

Wallman may be the 5 seed, but they should have the upper hand against a slumping Beilis team. Wallman's club has shown that they can crush the ball as well as any other team(unfortunately I know this first-hand). Wallman and Beilis might be #11 and 12 on the PPR, but the 25 points between the two scores indicates that the two teams are not really too close.

Prediction:
Wallman in two



American League:

Schefkind vs. Feldman

Team Schefkind enters the playoffs tied with the second best record in the league, but they haven't won back to back games since late June. Fortunately for them, they play a team that is only 4-14 since it's torrid 4-0 start. Despite their record and -83 run differential, Team Feldman can stay close against some of the top teams in the league. In fact, they beat Schefkind 14-8 in their last meeting. This may appear to be a very lopsided matchup, but I expect Feldman to give Shefkind a challenge. I'm thinking there will be an upset in one of the first two games and this will go to a third.

Prediction:
Schefkind in three


Lapine vs. Harris:

Like the Schefkind/Feldman pairing, these two teams split their regular season meetings despite being at the opposite ends of the regular season standings and the PPR In fact, both teams enter the playoffs winning two of their last three. In the end, I think a dominant Lapine team will only need the minimum to advance to the second round.

Prediction:
Lapine in two


Randell vs. Sarcona:

Upset alert. Despite the 3-6 matchup, Sarcona has been a powerhouse ever since its perplexing 0-8 start. Since then, they have a very impressive 10-4 record and even more importantly, a top 5 spot on the Pollock Power Rankings. At the same time, you can't dismiss a Randell team that's in the upper echelon of teams with a 12-9 record(and a decent 7th spot on the PPR). However, the bottom line is that this is a very dangerous Sarcona team. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games including wins by 12, 14, and 15 runs. In fact the 15 run victory was against Team Randell. If you're looking for a low seed to cause major havoc this year, Team Sarcona is your best bet.

Prediction:
Sarcona in three


Mesmer vs. Younger:

It's time for another reminder that all comments made here are solely based on the statistics. As I try to remain unbiased here, Team Mesmer should have the slight advantage in the first round. These two teams are very evenly matched. Take out the games played against each other, and both have a 10-10 record. However, the deciding factor should be that Mesmer won both regular season meetings.

Prediction:
Mesmer in three

Softball Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on how teams performed in 5 categories including Overall record, overall run differentials, record over the past seven games, run differential over the last seven games, record over last 3 games.

Each category was assigned a certain percentage. For instance, a team's overall record is more important than their record over the past 3 games. That being said, recent performance is important and therefore has a role in determining a team's overall value. The breakdown for each category's weight in the overall formulas is as follows:

Overall Record- 30%
Overall Run Differential- 30%
Record over the past seven games- 20%
Run Differential over the past seven games- 15%
Record over the past three games- 5%

Here are the Pollock's Power Rankings as of 8/27/10

1. Goldfarb- 149.5 points (out of a possible 160 points)
2. Lapine- 144.5
3. Carlin- 132.5
4. Schefkind-118.5
5. Sarcona- 102
6. Mesmer-98.5
7. Randell-98
8. Spiegel- 92.5
9. Younger- 85.5
10. Granese- 84.5
11. Wallman- 83
12. Beilis- 58
13. Harris- 55
14. Feldman-29
15. Applebaum-18.5
16. Sollazzo- 16.5



Coming Soon: Marlboro Softball playoff preview featuring a short breakdown of each series.

100 Greatest Characters of Last 20 Years

Entertainment Weekly came out with their 100 greatest characters of the last 20 years. As usual with any list, especially EW lists, there are a couple of choices that made me do a double take. Here is their top 10:


1) Homer Simpson
2) Harry Potter
3) Buffy
4) Tony Soprano
5) The Joker
6) Rachel Green
7) Edward Scissorhands
8) Hannibal Lecter
9) Carrie Bradshaw
10) Spongebob Squarepants

I don't think Edward Scissorhands belongs near the top 10. Rachel Green should also be a lot lower on this list. Not only has Friends not aged particularly that well, but there wasn't much about her to stand out as an individual. I could at least understand putting "Ross and Rachel" on the list instead. That would've been a copout, but the list DOES include some other pairings. Of course, the best thing about seeing a list like this is creating your own counter list. Here's my top 10 based on not just personal preference but also their place in pop culture:

The Final Episode of Lost

"And for us this is the end of all the stories, and we can most truly say that they all lived happily ever after.  But for them it was only the beginning of the real story.  All their life in this world and all their adventures [on the island] had only been the cover and the title page: now at last they were beginning Chapter One of the Great Story which no one on earth has read:  which goes on forever: in which every chapter is better than the one before." ~ C.S. Lewis, The Last Battle

“And love is not an easy thing, the only baggage you can bring, it’s all that you can’t leave behind.”  ~U2, “Walk On”

Yesterday we said farewell (or Namaste) to one of the greatest (and my favorite) television shows ever created.  There was much debate before the finale on whether it would live up to fan expectations.  Would the Lost writers be able to give the viewers a finale we were happy with?  Would “The End” be true to everything that has made this show remarkable?  Would it take the place among some of the most talked about endings in television history?  My opinion:  it certainly did.  “The End” was a wonderful, beautiful, moving tribute to characters that we have grown to love over the past six years.  It was a fitting end to the central themes of this show and while fans might not have received all the answers they wanted, we got moments between characters that beat any satisfaction those answers could have given.

Softball/MLB Averages- The Mystery Is Solved

Whenever I explained how batting under .500 in slow pitch softball isn't completely embarrassing, I told people how batting .500 is like batting .300 in the major leagues. I never knew if this was really true or not, but it seemed right. I was bored at work one day, so I decided to actually figure out how softball averages equate to MLB averages. I decided to create a chart of batting average conversions using last year’s softball statistics and the last 10 years of major league baseball averages. Here’s how it works:



Step One:

There are 208 players in the Marlboro Mens’ Softball league. We only have statistics on the 180 returning players. Since the 28 non returning players are considered unknown variables(since we don’t know if they overall had high averages or low averages), we’ll just assume that their data falls in line with the 180 players returning this year. Out of these 180 players:

73 batted .450
61 batted .475
30 batted .500
16 batted .525
8 batted .550
4 batted .575
2 batted .600

I turned each of these numbers into a ratio. For instance, since 30 out of 180 players batted .500, that’s 1 in 6. 16 out of 180 players batting .525 means that one in 11.25 players batted .525

American Idol Contest- Week 9 Standings

 If I analyzed the picks correctly, the only person who has a chance to beat Libre is Liz. Although Matt is in second place, the most he can outgain Libre by is 10 points. Since Liz predicted Casey to win, she pull off the upset. Will it happen? Stay tuned!


1. Libre Pollock- 95 points
2. Matt Pollock- 80 points
3. Sheila Pollock- 65 points
3. Liz Kaplan- 65 points
5. Ross Pollock- 55 points
6. Diana Lorenzo- 50 points
7. Ricarda Pollock- 45 points
7. Mike Podhorzer- 45 points
9. Justine Barbato- 40 points
9. Konstantina Barkas- 40 points
9. Mitch Pollock- 40 points
12. Kathy Dragonetti- 35 points
13. Christina Maffa- 30 points

American Idol Contest- Week 7 Results

1. Libre Pollock- 80 points
2. Matt Pollock- 70 points
3. Sheila Pollock- 60 points
4. Liz Kaplan- 50 points
5. Ross Pollock- 45 points
6. Diana Lorenzo- 40 points
6. Ricarda Pollock- 40 points
8. Justine Barbato- 35 points
8. Mike Podhorzer- 35 points
8. Konstantina Barkas- 35 points
11. Mitch Pollock- 30 points
11. Kathy Dragonetti- 30 points
13. Christina Maffa- 25 points

American Idol Contest- Top 6 Results

Well, I'm now officially done. This wasn't particularly surprising though. Siobhan really squandered all the momentum she had after a great semi finals and the first performance of the top 12. When was the last time someone faded as quickly as she did? I guess you can say it was Andrew Garcia! I was a little surprised that Aaron was in the top three and not Casey, assuming the bottom three does indeed indicate the three lowest vote getters. The buzz of a Crystal vs. Lee finals will not die down since they are the only two contestants never to land in the bottom three. Both Libre and Matt have these two as the last remaining, but only Matt still has his top 4 picks in tact. I also awarded 15 points to everyone who had Crystal as the top female finisher. The only ones who did not receive these 15 points were me, Jsutine, and Konstantinas.

1. Libre Pollock- 70 points
1. Matt Pollock- 70 points
3. Sheila Pollock- 60 points
4. Ross Pollock- 45 points
5. Liz Kaplan- 40 points
5. Diana Lorenzo- 40 points
7. Justine Barbato- 35 points
7. Mike Podhorzer- 35 points
7. Ricarda Pollock- 35 points
10. Mitch Pollock- 25 points
10. Christina Maffa- 25 points
12. Konstantina Barkas- 20 points
12. Kathy Dragonetti- 20 points

American Idol- Shania Week

Quick thoughts on what’s clearly becoming a subpar season of American Idol. What’s weird about tonight is that despite the lack of bad performances, the show still felt flat. Maybe this has to do with my personal indifference towards Shania Twain’s music. I think most of it, however, is owed to my lack of attachment to any contestant not named Crystal. I’ll break down tonight’s show by talking about the positives and the negatives:


Positives:

Casey, Aaron, and Michael sounded better than ever tonight. Again, I didn’t feel as much electricity from their performances as I thought I should have, but I thought they gave the three best performances of the night. In Casey and Aaron’s cases, this is exactly the kind of music that fits perfectly for them. I haven’t been the biggest Casey fan, but he was the best tonight.

American Idol Contest Update

Libre gains 5 points to keep up with Matt's move for first place. This week's biggest point getter was Mama Pollock! Defending champ, Justine, continues to stay in contention.

1. Libre Pollock- 45 points
2. Matt Pollock- 40 points
3. Justine Barbato- 35 points
3. Sheila Pollock- 35 points
5. Ross Pollock- 30 points
6. Mitch Pollock- 25 points
6. Diana Lorenzo- 25 points
8. Mike Podhorzer- 20 points
8. Ricarda Pollock- 20 points
8. Konstantina Barkas- 20 points
8. Liz Kaplan- 20 points
12. Christina Maffa- 10 points
13. Kathy Dragonetti- 5 points