Softball Playoff Predictions(First Round)

It's that most wonderful time of the year! Playoff time for the Marlboro Mens Softball league. Recently, we've had years where all the favorites advance and years where there were upsets after upsets. The truth is that when you're dealing with softball, almost anything can happen. That being said, the Pollock Power Rankings(see previous article on this blog site) were designed to accurately project exactly what will happen in the playoffs. Ok, well not exactly. I am hoping it at least predicts the winner of the Mesmer/Younger matchup. If you object to any of the predictions, well you should have done a better job in the regular season :)

Round One:

National League

Goldfarb vs. Sollazzo

This is where I have to remind the readers that I'm solely basing this preview on the numbers, so nothing personal. The bottom line is that Goldfarb has a run differential of +88 while Sollazzo's is -122. The one ray of hope for Sollazzo's squad is that they've kept the scores close lately. Two out of the last three losses were by a total of five runs. Meanwhile Goldfarb's last three games have all been relatively close. The bottom line,however, is that all signs are pointing towards a two game sweep.

Prediction:
Goldfarb in two


Carlin vs. Applebaum

For awhile there it looked like Carlin was losing all of its early season momentum. Not only are they entering the playoffs on a three game winning streak, but they are absolutely crushing their opponents. On the other side of the field, Team Applebaum has lost three of the past four games by 8,14, and 19 runs. They are also 1-6 in their last seven games. If any part of playoff success is based on momentum, then it looks like Carlin should win easily.

Prediction:
Carlin in two.


Spiegel vs. Granese:

These two teams are almost as evenly matched as you can get. In fact, The PPR(Pollock Power Rankings) has Spiegel ranked 8th and Granese 10th. There is also no clear sign of momentum although Granese won both regular season meetings. In the end, I'm going to stick with my power rankings and say Spiegel will squeak out a victory.

Prediction:
Spiegel in three


Beilis vs.Wallman

Wallman may be the 5 seed, but they should have the upper hand against a slumping Beilis team. Wallman's club has shown that they can crush the ball as well as any other team(unfortunately I know this first-hand). Wallman and Beilis might be #11 and 12 on the PPR, but the 25 points between the two scores indicates that the two teams are not really too close.

Prediction:
Wallman in two



American League:

Schefkind vs. Feldman

Team Schefkind enters the playoffs tied with the second best record in the league, but they haven't won back to back games since late June. Fortunately for them, they play a team that is only 4-14 since it's torrid 4-0 start. Despite their record and -83 run differential, Team Feldman can stay close against some of the top teams in the league. In fact, they beat Schefkind 14-8 in their last meeting. This may appear to be a very lopsided matchup, but I expect Feldman to give Shefkind a challenge. I'm thinking there will be an upset in one of the first two games and this will go to a third.

Prediction:
Schefkind in three


Lapine vs. Harris:

Like the Schefkind/Feldman pairing, these two teams split their regular season meetings despite being at the opposite ends of the regular season standings and the PPR In fact, both teams enter the playoffs winning two of their last three. In the end, I think a dominant Lapine team will only need the minimum to advance to the second round.

Prediction:
Lapine in two


Randell vs. Sarcona:

Upset alert. Despite the 3-6 matchup, Sarcona has been a powerhouse ever since its perplexing 0-8 start. Since then, they have a very impressive 10-4 record and even more importantly, a top 5 spot on the Pollock Power Rankings. At the same time, you can't dismiss a Randell team that's in the upper echelon of teams with a 12-9 record(and a decent 7th spot on the PPR). However, the bottom line is that this is a very dangerous Sarcona team. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games including wins by 12, 14, and 15 runs. In fact the 15 run victory was against Team Randell. If you're looking for a low seed to cause major havoc this year, Team Sarcona is your best bet.

Prediction:
Sarcona in three


Mesmer vs. Younger:

It's time for another reminder that all comments made here are solely based on the statistics. As I try to remain unbiased here, Team Mesmer should have the slight advantage in the first round. These two teams are very evenly matched. Take out the games played against each other, and both have a 10-10 record. However, the deciding factor should be that Mesmer won both regular season meetings.

Prediction:
Mesmer in three

Softball Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on how teams performed in 5 categories including Overall record, overall run differentials, record over the past seven games, run differential over the last seven games, record over last 3 games.

Each category was assigned a certain percentage. For instance, a team's overall record is more important than their record over the past 3 games. That being said, recent performance is important and therefore has a role in determining a team's overall value. The breakdown for each category's weight in the overall formulas is as follows:

Overall Record- 30%
Overall Run Differential- 30%
Record over the past seven games- 20%
Run Differential over the past seven games- 15%
Record over the past three games- 5%

Here are the Pollock's Power Rankings as of 8/27/10

1. Goldfarb- 149.5 points (out of a possible 160 points)
2. Lapine- 144.5
3. Carlin- 132.5
4. Schefkind-118.5
5. Sarcona- 102
6. Mesmer-98.5
7. Randell-98
8. Spiegel- 92.5
9. Younger- 85.5
10. Granese- 84.5
11. Wallman- 83
12. Beilis- 58
13. Harris- 55
14. Feldman-29
15. Applebaum-18.5
16. Sollazzo- 16.5



Coming Soon: Marlboro Softball playoff preview featuring a short breakdown of each series.